Predicting water quality and ecological responses

Abstract Changes to climate are predicted to have effects on freshwater streams. Stream flows are likely to change, with implications for freshwater ecosystems and water quality. Other stressors such as population growth, community preferences and management policies can be expected to interact in various ways with climate change and stream flows, and outcomes for freshwater ecosystems and water quality are uncertain. Managers of freshwater ecosystems and water supplies could benefit from being able to predict the scales of likely changes. This project has developed and applied a linked modelling framework to assess climate change impacts on water quality regimes and ecological responses. The framework is designed to inform water planning and climate adaptation activities. It integrates quantitative tools, and predicts relationships between future climate, human activities, water quality and ecology, thereby filling a gap left by the considerable research effort so far invested in predicting stream flows. The modelling framework allows managers to explore potential changes in the water quality and ecology of freshwater systems in response to plausible scenarios for climate change and management adaptations. Although set up for the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in southern NSW and ACT, the framework was planned to be transferable to other regions where suitable data are available. The approach and learning from the project appear to have the potential to be broadly applicable. We selected six climate scenarios representing minor, moderate and major changes in flow characteristics for 1oC and 2oC temperature increases. These were combined with four plausible alternative management adaptations that might be used to modify water supply, urban water demand and stream flow regimes in the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment. The Bayesian Network (BN) model structure we used was developed using both a ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approach. From analyses combined with expert advice, we identified the causal structure linking climate variables to stream flow, water quality attributes, land management and ecological responses (top down). The ‘bottom up’ approach focused on key ecological outcomes and key drivers, and helped produce efficient models. The result was six models for macroinvertebrates, and one for fish. In the macroinvertebrate BN models, nodes were discretised using statistical/empirical derived thresholds using new techniques. The framework made it possible to explore how ecological communities respond to changes in climate and management activities. Particularly, we focused on the effects of water quality and quantity on ecological responses. The models showed a strong regional response reflecting differences across 18 regions in the catchment. In two regions the management alternatives were predicted to have stronger effects than climate change. In three other regions the predicted response to climate change was stronger. Analyses of water quality suggested minor changes in the probability of water quality exceeding thresholds designed to protect aquatic ecosystems. The ‘bottom up’ approach limited the framework’s transferability by being specific to the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment data. Indeed, to meet stakeholder questions models need to be specifically tailored. Therefore the report proposes a general model-building framework for transferring the approach, rather than the models, to other regions.  Please cite this report as: Dyer, F, El Sawah, S, Lucena-Moya, P, Harrison, E, Croke, B, Tschierschke, A, Griffiths, R, Brawata, R, Kath, J, Reynoldson, T, Jakeman, T 2013 Predicting water quality and ecological responses, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 110 Changes to climate are predicted to have effects on freshwater streams. Stream flows are likely to change, with implications for freshwater ecosystems and water quality. Other stressors such as population growth, community preferences and management policies can be expected to interact in various ways with climate change and stream flows, and outcomes for freshwater ecosystems and water quality are uncertain. Managers of freshwater ecosystems and water supplies could benefit from being able to predict the scales of likely changes. This project has developed and applied a linked modelling framework to assess climate change impacts on water quality regimes and ecological responses. The framework is designed to inform water planning and climate adaptation activities. It integrates quantitative tools, and predicts relationships between future climate, human activities, water quality and ecology, thereby filling a gap left by the considerable research effort so far invested in predicting stream flows. The modelling framework allows managers to explore potential changes in the water quality and ecology of freshwater systems in response to plausible scenarios for climate change and management adaptations. Although set up for the Upper Murrumbidgee River catchment in southern NSW and ACT, the framework was planned to be transferable to other regions where suitable data are available. The approach and learning from the project appear to have the potential to be broadly applicable. We selected six climate scenarios representing minor, moderate and major changes in flow characteristics for 1oC and 2oC temperature increases. These were combined with four plausible alternative management adaptations that might be used to modify water supply, urban water demand and stream flow regimes in the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment. The Bayesian Network (BN) model structure we used was developed using both a ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approach. From analyses combined with expert advice, we identified the causal structure linking climate variables to stream flow, water quality attributes, land management and ecological responses (top down). The ‘bottom up’ approach focused on key ecological outcomes and key drivers, and helped produce efficient models. The result was six models for macroinvertebrates, and one for fish. In the macroinvertebrate BN models, nodes were discretised using statistical/empirical derived thresholds using new techniques. The framework made it possible to explore how ecological communities respond to changes in climate and management activities. Particularly, we focused on the effects of water quality and quantity on ecological responses. The models showed a strong regional response reflecting differences across 18 regions in the catchment. In two regions the management alternatives were predicted to have stronger effects than climate change. In three other regions the predicted response to climate change was stronger. Analyses of water quality suggested minor changes in the probability of water quality exceeding thresholds designed to protect aquatic ecosystems. The ‘bottom up’ approach limited the framework’s transferability by being specific to the Upper Murrumbidgee catchment data. Indeed, to meet stakeholder questions models need to be specifically tailored. Therefore the report proposes a general model-building framework for transferring the approach, rather than the models, to other regions.&nbsp

The influence of differing protected area status and environmental factors on the macroinvertebrate fauna of temperate austral wetlands

AbstractOne means of conserving wetlands is to designate the area around them as ‘protected’. Although many different types of protected areas exist, ranging from international (Ramsar-listed) to local importance, there is little information on how the type of protection influences biodiversity conservation. Studies of the effectiveness of protected area systems are a priority, if we are to understand their importance and design systems effectively. Many Tasmanian wetlands are regarded as having high to very high conservation values with more than 60% located within protected areas. This study tested macroinvertebrate richness and assemblage responses to a range of environmental attributes and differing types of protected area status at 66 protected Tasmanian (Australian) wetlands. Two hundred and eighteen taxa were identified with an average of 33 species (or morphospecies) and 18 families recorded per wetland. The wetland assemblages were idiosyncratic, four families contributed 21% of the total recorded and only two families contributed greater than 10%. Wetlands were not significantly nested on the basis of the composition of their macroinvertebrate assemblages. No single environmental attribute had a strong relationship with macroinvertebrate richness or assemblage composition and neither species richness nor assemblage composition varied significantly between different types of protected areas. Although the majority of protected area types were designed to support terrestrial conservation objectives rather than wetland values, our results suggest that the latter were also afforded protection. The state of the proximal zone (the terrestrial zone within 50m of the wetland edge) and the type of aquatic habitat present (macrophyte or sediment-dominated substrates) were the most important determinants of macroinvertebrate richness and assemblage composition across all types of protected wetlands. These results suggest that for temperate austral wetlands located within protected areas, the macroinvertebrate fauna will be best conserved by minimal disturbance of proximal lands

Managing High Risk Youth Pilot Project

It is well documented that young people who offend can present with an array of emotional, behavioural and interpersonal problems. Nonetheless, this is a group that is marginalised in society and who are either unable or unwilling to access typical mainstream resources with services often having to outsource specialist forensic mental health assessments and opinions. In response to this unmet need, the Centre for Youth and Criminal Justice is launching a pilot project aimed at supporting local authorities in their attempts to ensure best practice in forensic mental health risk assessment and management for young people. The Managing High Risk Youth Project will be officially launched on 2nd September 2013. Whilst located in Glasgow, the overarching aim of the project is to ensure all high risk young people and families, regardless of where they live, have access to best advice, practice assessment and interventions addressing their mental health, psychological and forensic risk and needs across Scotland

What Can We Learn in Scotland from the Red Hook Community Court?

Following a visit to New York, CYCJ Practice Development Manager Fiona Dyer explores in this case study how we can work better with young people who appear in court by looking at the example of the Red Hook Justice Center and Community Court

Alternatives to Custody

Many young people in Scotland are in custody for short sentences or on remand for crimes that may not result in a custodial sentence. The risk the majority of these young people present could be managed within the community and alternatives to custody, where appropriate, should always be sought

Supporting and Managing Children Who Pose a High Risk

The Whole System Approach (WSA) is the Scottish Government’s programme for addressing the needs of children involved in offending. The ethos is based on the principles of ‘Getting It Right For Every Child’, and includes evidence from the Edinburgh Study of Youth, Transitions and Crime, promotes a holistic response across all systems and agencies to children which should lead to the majority of children who offend being diverted from statutory measures, compulsory supervision, formal justice systems, and prosecution wherever possible, through early intervention and supports. The WSA also extends to children who become subject to statutory measures, and sets out clear expectations that the Children’s Hearing System (the CHS) and the Courts will seek robust community alternatives to detention. Where detention is deemed essential, wherever possible this should be in a secure care rather than prison setting

Supporting Young People Who Enter Into Secure Care or Custody to Reintegrate Into Communities

This paper gives a brief overview of the current system of supporting young people who enter into secure care or custody in Scotland to reintegrate and transition back into their families and communities. It highlights recent developments and changes in policy, including the Whole System Approach. This paper asks why, with reductions in the number of young people in secure care and custody, we are still not getting reintegration right. It highlights what needs to be achieved to ensure progress in this area and concludes with recommendations for future work

Young People at Court in Scotland

Written by CYCJ’s Practice Development Manager Fiona Dyer, this paper refers to the young people appearing in adult courts in Scotland, looking at government policies, legislation and practices, before making recommendations for a legislative and policy change. The paper argues that changes need to be made to government policies, legislation and current practice to bring Scotland in line with the United National Convention on the Rights of the Child

Managing the Risk of Serious Harm Presented by Young People

Young people aged 12 to 17 years who have committed a serious sexual offence or are considered a serious risk of harm, can be managed in various ways, including under child protection procedures, Care and Risk Management (CARM) or Multi-agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA) if they have been convicted of the offence in a criminal court. The police have a duty to jointly report young people who are alleged to have committed such offences to the Children’s Reporter and Procurator Fiscal. This applies to young people who are a) under age 16; b) age 16 and 17 subject to a Compulsory Supervision Order (CSO) or c) age 16 and 17, not on a CSO but an open referral to the children’s reporter. A decision will then be taken by the Procurator Fiscal regarding the best system to deal with the offence